Is this study valid
  • Definition of the tool outcome:   Don't confuse this with the search outcome, discussed above.  the outcome of the tool (which is really a diagnostic test here) is the presence or absence of an ectopic pregnancy.   Our paper clearly defines these outcomes and displays the criteria for diagnosis or exclusion of an ectopic in a easy to follow table
  • Blind assessment of outcome:  The article does not specifically state that persons determining outcome (ectopic or not) were blinded to findings on clinical examination
  • Prospective assesment of predictors: Yes.  In fact a template form including all potential predictor variables studied was used as the medical record.
  • Are the potential predictor variables clearly defined: Yes.  An appendices briefly defines criteria for each variable
  • Are the potential predictors reliable?   They did not assess inter-rater reliability for physical examination findings.  They note in their discussion that subjecting patients to two, potentially painful examinations, may not be ethical.
  • Were the mathematical techniques used to define the rule explained: yes.  They used recursive partitioning and described the method.
  • Did they include too many variables in the final rule? 2 variables define a high risk group.  4 additional variables differentiate the remaining patients into moderate and low risk groups.  Thus 6 variables.  To avoid over fitting they should have had at least 60 ectopic gestations in their sample.  They had only 39.  Thus the potential for data over fitting exists.
  • Description of the derivation population:  The demographic characteristics are displayed in a table
    Validation: This is a derivation study. data splitting was used but we will have to search for an independent validation study.